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| #356716 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 01.Jul.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 1000 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010 INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM NEAR THE CENTER OF ALEX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ALEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/11. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT... THEN THE REMNANTS OF ALEX SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST- NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 23.1N 100.3W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 02/0000Z 23.0N 102.0W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
