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| #358256 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:17 PM 07.Jul.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010 DATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION INDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING STEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A RESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 23.9N 93.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI |
