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| #358309 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 AM 08.Jul.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010 400 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010 AFTER A PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION DURING FORMATIVE STAGE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN TWO OR THREE HOURS AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE THE STATUS OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE GULF WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT HOSTILE...A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. IF SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN KEPT IN THIS ADVISORY. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW IMPORTANT STRENGTHENING. BOTH...INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS ARE FORECAST TO OCURR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 24.8N 95.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 25.8N 96.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 26.5N 99.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
