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| #35945 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 28.Jul.2005) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED 45 KT... BUT SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY... SO FRANKLIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... ABOUT 24 HOURS... EXISTS FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY. WEAKENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER UNTIL FRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW... BUT BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM SSMI AND AMSU... THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A BIT FASTER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/8. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE HEADING BUT... AS USUAL IN CASES OF RECURVATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION... PROVIDE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ALTHOUGH JUST A LITTLE SLOWER TO BLEND WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 35.5N 69.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 36.5N 68.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 38.0N 66.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 40.1N 63.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 42.4N 59.3W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 31/0600Z 46.5N 49.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM |
