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| #3621 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 03.Aug.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND 81 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 850 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE WILMINGTON AND NEWPORT WSR-88D RADARS HAVE SHOWN 85 KT WINDS AT ABOUT 8000-9000 FT. BASED ON THIS...ALEX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 70 KT HURRICANE. THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYEWALL IN CONSTANT FLUX...OCCASIONALLY FULLY CLOSED AND OCCASIONALLY OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ALEX IS EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND ALL GUIDANCE SAYS THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING A MORE EASTERLY MOTION AFTER 24 HR THAN SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WITH SOME SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO SLOWER...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GFDL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ALEX OFFHSORE...ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY. SUCH A LEFT JOG COULD OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF ALEX AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. ALEX IS CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AND START TO SHEAR ALEX. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR MORE...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR...COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HR. ALEX COULD PEAK AT 80 KT OR SO IN BETWEEN FORECAST TIMES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 33.5N 76.9W 70 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 34.6N 75.6W 75 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 36.3N 72.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 37.8N 68.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 39.4N 63.4W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 06/0600Z 44.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW |
