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| #362318 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 22.Jul.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT... NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE EARLIER. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.9N 75.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 22.6N 76.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 23.8N 80.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 83.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 86.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 28.0N 91.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1200Z 33.0N 95.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS |
