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| #362396 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 22.Jul.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS EXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 22.7N 75.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 23.8N 77.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 24.5N 80.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 24/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.5N 86.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/1800Z 29.0N 91.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1800Z 32.5N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1800Z 34.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS |
