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| #362630 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 23.Jul.2010) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 ...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY INLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD * DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH...85 KM/HR. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY. RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS |
