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| #362727 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 23.Jul.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS |
