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| #362884 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 24.Jul.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010 DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400 UTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND MAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1013 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY. BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15. BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL ESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE REACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE IS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY. THAT SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 27.0N 85.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 28.0N 87.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0600Z 29.4N 89.7W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/1800Z 30.8N 91.4W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/0600Z 32.1N 92.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 93.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI |
