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| #362938 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 24.Jul.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010 STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25 KNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE COAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. A BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. BECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG FORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 28.0N 86.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 29.1N 88.7W 25 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 30.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 26/1200Z 33.0N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS |
