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| #3654 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 03.Aug.2004) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LARRY IS BECOMING WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE...IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CAN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST REGENERATION...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN DOES NOT...AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE NOT VERY EMPHATIC ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT EITHER. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE TOO DISRUPTED BY IT PASSAGE OVER THE ISTHMUS FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND TODAY. EVEN THOUGH LARRY IS DISSIPATING...ITS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THEREFORE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.3N 94.0W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.9N 94.1W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED United States - Hurricane and tropical storm reports IWIN products will be migrated to newer systems soon. Please see additional information here WTUS82 KILM 031501 HLSILM AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-031530- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2004 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY NC... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS FOR RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGETOWN AND HORRY. ...WARNING AND WATCH INFORMATION... ALONG THE COAST OF PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO WARRANT DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT....AND A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST...JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND CAPE HATTERAS. ALEX WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. ALEX IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE EYE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB OR 28.70 INCHES. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST NORTH SOUTH OF SURF CITY MAY RELAX THEIR PREPARATIONS...AS ALEX IS NO LONGER A THREAT. ...NEXT UPDATE... THIS IS THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR ALEX FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WILMINGTON. REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON ALEX. FOR LOCAL WEATHER INFORMATION LISTEN TO THE NOAA WEATHER AND ALL HAZARDS RADIO...OR VISIT THE NWS WILMINGTON WEBSITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/ILM |
