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| #365749 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 03.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 THE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY ABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A SMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER. HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED. BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF COLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HR. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 15.8N 53.8W 35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 57.2W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 04/1800Z 18.4N 60.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 63.8W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 05/1800Z 21.7N 66.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 70.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 72.5W 30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 08/1800Z 30.0N 73.5W 30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
