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| #366386 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:05 PM 05.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17. COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET. THE FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. COLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24 HR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM 24-72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFDL AND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE. THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT 120 HR. INTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 24.9N 66.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 67.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 28.1N 67.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 29.6N 67.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 31.3N 67.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 36.0N 65.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 40.0N 61.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 48.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
