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| #366804 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 07.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010 DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT COLIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE THE SURFACE CENTER DISPLACED NORTH OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER FIX. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR OVER COLIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. SHIPS SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS COLIN WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AND COLIN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH ICON. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT COLIN HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/04. COLIN APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON COLIN ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE EAST AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COLIN IS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 29.1N 66.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 30.4N 66.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 32.3N 65.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 34.8N 63.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 37.8N 61.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 54.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 51.5N 43.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
