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| #366936 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 07.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 500 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010 IT HAS BEEN INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. DURING THE MORNING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND AS NEW CONVECTION FORMED...THE CENTER SHIFTED EASTWARD AND BECAME TUCKED INTO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN THE OUTFLOW BEGAN TO EXPAND...GIVING THE IMPRESSION THAT THERE WAS A DEVELOPING TREND. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AND THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. IN FACT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON ONE SFMR OBSERVATION OF 34 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR SUGGEST THAT COLIN WILL AT LEAST KEEP ITS TROPICAL STORM STATUS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW SHEAR FOR A DAY OR SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AFTER 48 HOURS...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW. IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT EVEN TRACK COLIN BEYOND 3 DAYS. THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL MORNING BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT COLIN IS BEGINNING A SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TAKES COLIN NORTHWARD AND INDEED ALL MODELS BRING THE CENTER JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH COLIN WILL BE AFFECTING BERMUDA SINCE THEY ARE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 29.4N 65.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 32.2N 65.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 35.0N 65.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 38.5N 62.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
