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| #367009 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 07.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010 THE CENTER OF COLIN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...EVEN WITH THE HELP OF A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT IS NORTH OF THE CURRENTLY SHRINKING AREA OF CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. COLIN IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT... AND ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS A TONGUE OF LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR SEEN INTRUDING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN AN AMSR-E OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 015/3. IN THE SHORT TERM...COLIN APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST...AND THIS COULD BE A REASON FOR THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION. IN THE LONGER TERM...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST COLIN TO TAKE 24 OR MORE HOURS BEFORE PASSING BERMUDA. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT COLIN SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND LACK OF ORGANIZATION...IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH COLIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TO 45 KT IN 48 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN DOES NOT STRENGTHEN AND REMAINS AT BEST A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT INTENSITY...COLIN SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT AROUND 48 HR AND COMPLETE IT BY 72 HR. THE CYCLONE IS THEN LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 29.7N 65.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 30.7N 65.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 32.4N 65.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 34.7N 64.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 38.1N 62.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 47.5N 51.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
