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| #367121 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 08.Aug.2010) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COLIN IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS LITTLE...IF ANY...ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE ABOVE...COLIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON COLIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO ELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. COLIN IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING COLIN OR ITS REMNANTS NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 32.0N 65.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 33.3N 65.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 35.3N 64.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 37.9N 63.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 41.2N 58.8W 30 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
