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| #367733 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 10.Aug.2010) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM... NEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON. THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 26.2N 84.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 27.3N 85.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 28.4N 87.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.2N 89.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.7N 90.3W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/0000Z 33.5N 89.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN |
