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| #3702 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 03.Aug.2004) TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022004 2100Z TUE AUG 03 2004 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENTS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RESPONSIBILITIES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE ISSUED THE FOLLOWING WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ST LUCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE ...DOMINICA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS NORTH OF ST. LUCIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 56.6W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 56.6W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 55.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 59.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA |
