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| #370536 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 22.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010 DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND 1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90 C. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A RECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.2N 35.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.9N 37.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 15.9N 40.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 43.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 18.5N 46.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 21.7N 50.8W 75 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 24.5N 54.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI |
