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| #371018 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 24.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010 WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS UNRAVELED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY. FINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR T3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE ENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY DANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE BECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY AFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AT THIS TIME. DANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5 OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 17.5N 48.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 18.5N 49.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 20.2N 51.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 22.0N 53.8W 80 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 23.7N 55.3W 85 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 26.5N 58.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 29.5N 61.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 33.0N 61.5W 95 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG |
