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| #371156 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 25.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL. CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY. BOTH OF THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL. A SHORT WAVE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A FURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. LATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER... SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 18.8N 51.0W 75 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 20.1N 52.7W 70 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 21.8N 54.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 23.3N 56.3W 75 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 24.5N 58.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 61.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 30.0N 62.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
