Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #371215 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 25.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF 2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM WATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON THE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 14.3N 30.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 14.7N 33.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 15.2N 36.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 16.0N 39.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 16.5N 42.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 18.0N 48.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 53.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.5N 57.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
