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| #371217 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 25.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010 DANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15. DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. AFTER THAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST RIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE TURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR. THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72 HR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE... AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 19.6N 52.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 20.8N 53.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 22.3N 55.7W 80 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 23.7N 57.4W 80 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 24.9N 59.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 27.5N 61.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 30.5N 62.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 34.0N 62.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
