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| #371288 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 25.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED BANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR COMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS BASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS IN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT MODEL CYCLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 14.4N 32.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 14.6N 34.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 15.0N 38.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 15.5N 41.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 16.0N 44.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 18.0N 55.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 60.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
