Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #371291 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 25.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010 DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C...AND A FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS STILL AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/15. FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED. THE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF IT THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 12-18 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR DANIELLE DURING THE 24-72 HR TIME FRAME...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER SHEAR THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE LIGHTER-SHEAR SCENARIO AND CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT IN 72 HR. THIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/GFDN AND THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SHIPS/LGEM. AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 21.2N 53.1W 75 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 22.3N 54.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 23.5N 56.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 24.8N 58.3W 85 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 29.0N 62.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 32.0N 62.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 30/1800Z 35.0N 62.5W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
