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| #371398 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 AM 26.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010 AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING IN COVERAGE. BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 5.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS EXCELLENT EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DANIELLE TO INTENSIFY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DURING THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DANIELLE WILL BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN 30N AND 35N. AFTER THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF HOW QUICKLY DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWARD...AND IF AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS FARTHEST WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND FASTER TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 23.4N 54.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 24.5N 56.3W 95 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 25.8N 58.1W 100 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 27.0N 59.9W 100 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 28.3N 61.1W 105 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 31.5N 61.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 35.5N 60.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 38.0N 59.5W 75 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
