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| #371635 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 27.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 EARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS PERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY HURRICANE DANIELLE...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 15.9N 41.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.2N 44.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 16.4N 47.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 16.6N 50.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 17.2N 53.9W 65 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 59.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 21.5N 62.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 65.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
