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| #371685 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 27.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST... THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.7N 43.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.8N 45.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.3N 49.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.8N 53.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 17.5N 56.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 18.8N 60.5W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 21.5N 64.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
