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| #371741 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 27.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010 EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS DEVELOPING ON ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EARL WILL BE MOVING SOON OVER AN EVEN WARMER OCEAN AND UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY AND BECOME AN INTENSE ONE BY DAY FIVE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT APPEARS THAT I WAS EITHER SLOW THIS MORNING OR EARL HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES OR WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. I FEEL A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN WITH THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY BEGIN TO MOVE EARL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 15.8N 46.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.3N 52.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 55.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 19.5N 62.2W 80 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 23.0N 65.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
