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| #371743 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 27.Aug.2010) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2100 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 72 HOURS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.0W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 30SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 46.0W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.3N 52.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 85NE 75SE 60SW 85NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 27.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
