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| #371825 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 27.Aug.2010) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TOMORROW. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 47.9W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 15SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 47.9W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.2N 50.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.6N 54.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.3N 56.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 59.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
