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| #371997 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 28.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 ...EARL HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A HURRY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 54.2W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA SOON AND GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND SIZE OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
