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| #372000 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 28.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY OF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A SIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND WILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE WIND RADII. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.5N 54.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.0N 57.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 29/1800Z 17.5N 59.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 30/0600Z 18.3N 61.8W 75 KT 48HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 63.5W 85 KT 72HR VT 31/1800Z 21.0N 67.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 01/1800Z 25.0N 70.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 02/1800Z 30.5N 72.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
