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| #372060 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:17 PM 28.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB. WHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR... WHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY STRENGTHENS. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES. OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A GREATER INFLUENCE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE GFDL. THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL WILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART. AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 16.6N 55.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 17.0N 57.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 70 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 18.1N 62.0W 80 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 19.0N 63.9W 90 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 22.0N 68.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 25.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 31.0N 72.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
