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| #372240 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 29.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 ...EARL STRENGTHENS...HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 59.5W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM E OF BARBUDA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
