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| #372244 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 29.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EARL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SURROUNDING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THERE ARE NO HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER AN EYE IS APPARENT IN RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND WAS ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH THE PLANE DID NOT FIND HIGHER FLIGHT-LEVEL OR SFMR WINDS THAN IT DID THIS MORNING...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED WAS LOWER ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 978 MB. BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT. A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION SHOULD BE IN EARL SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT AIR FORCE C-130 MISSION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC. THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TODAY YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36-48 HOURS. EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO GREAT LAKES REGION IN 4-5 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN FASTER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.6N 59.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 18.0N 61.3W 90 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 18.9N 63.3W 100 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 20.3N 65.1W 110 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 22.1N 66.9W 115 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 27.3N 70.2W 115 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 33.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 90 KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
