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| #372296 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 29.Aug.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010 EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT 24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT 36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT 48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
