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| #372350 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 30.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ...EARL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 62.4W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ENE OF ST. MARTIN ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE NOW SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
