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| #372352 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 30.Aug.2010) TCDAT1 HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010 500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED DANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO THAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. DANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN SOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF NORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY OBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 40.4N 52.0W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 41.6N 49.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24HR VT 31/0600Z 42.7N 44.3W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36HR VT 31/1800Z 44.0N 38.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48HR VT 01/0600Z 46.0N 32.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 02/0600Z 53.0N 26.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 03/0600Z 63.0N 32.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
