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| #372447 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:59 PM 30.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 300 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ...EYE OF EARL PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 64.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANGUILLA * PUERTO RICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 300 PM AST...1900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES... ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BERG |
