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| #372485 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 30.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 ...EARL BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 64.7W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING..AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANGUILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE WILL DISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY AT 600 PM AST...2200 UTC. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PASS EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 FEET ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES. RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...700 PM AST AND 900 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
