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| #372693 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:53 PM 31.Aug.2010) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 200 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010 ...CORE OF HURRICANE EARL PASSING WELL EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH 135 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 68.5W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE EARL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT EARL IS FORECAST TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE IN THESE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY. STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
