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| #372935 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 PM 01.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX. HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5 THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 26.3N 73.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W 110 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W 100 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
