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| #373003 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 01.Sep.2010) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010 1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010 DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF FIONA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 58 KT AND SFMR WINDS TO 53 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043 THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND A RECENT SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTED A CIRCULATION THAT APPEARED ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FIONA APPEARS QUITE HOSTILE...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE EARL. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DISSIPATION OF FIONA COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT FIONA ACCELERATED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 320/20 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...FIONA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EARL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 21.8N 64.1W 50 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 23.8N 65.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 26.2N 67.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 28.8N 67.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 31.5N 66.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 35.5N 63.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
