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| #373011 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 PM 01.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT. REDUCING THIS WIND SPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT 120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N MI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.8N 73.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 30.0N 75.1W 120 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 33.2N 75.2W 110 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.7W 100 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 85 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 48.5N 61.5W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 06/0000Z 57.0N 57.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
