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| #37302 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 03.Aug.2005) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...IN FACT...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION IT LOOKS LIKE A SKELETON. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ONLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DESPITE SUCH POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION... RECON MEASURED 62 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN KEPT AT 50 KNOTS UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE REACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR HARVEY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE SHEAR IS NOT NORMALLY A DETRIMENT TO NON-PURE TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE HARVEY. THE CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ARE VERY SMALL. AS A PRECAUTION...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS KEPT FOR BERMUDA...TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HISTORICAL ERRORS IN INTENSITY FORECASTS. HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN 36 HOURS OR SO. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...BUT THE STEERING WILL LIKELY VARY IN SPEED AS SHORTWAVES MOVE BY THE AREA. HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS SOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO. THEN...ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW AND HARVEY WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NOTE: A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...JUST RECEIVED...SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WE WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BEFORE WE LOWER THE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. FORECASTER AVILA/BERG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 31.5N 65.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 32.1N 64.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 32.8N 62.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 60.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 58.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 35.0N 55.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 41.0N 45.0W 30 KT |
