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| #373149 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 02.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS. EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. EARL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.9N 74.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W 115 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 44.0N 67.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 53.5N 62.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96HR VT 06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
