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| #373230 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 02.Sep.2010) TCDAT2 HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947 MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
